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25 Aug 2014
The week ahead in FX market - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura FX Strategists review the week ahead, highlighting Japan and Eurozone CPIs.
Key Quotes
Next week kicks off with German IFO data on Monday at 9:00BST. Nomura estimates are slightly below the market consensus. US house price data are released on Tuesday at 14:00BST. Otherwise the first few days of next week are relatively quiet on the data front.
From Europe on Thursday, Spanish GDP data for Q2 will be released. However, this is only a final number after the preliminary data released in late July, and the release is not likely to be overly surprising. Later on Thursday there are unemployment data from Germany (8:55BST) and confidence indicators from the eurozone at 10:00BST. Germany also releases preliminary data on the August CPI on Thursday at 13:00BST. Nomura economists are above consensus on a month-on-month harmonized basis by one tenth of a percentage point at 0.1%.
From the US on Thursday, we get the second estimates for Q2 GDP and core PCE. Both the market and our US economics team expect the growth rate (q-o-q annualized) to be revised down by 0.1% to 3.9%. Monthly PCE data will also be released for July, but on the following day (Friday at 13:30BST).
On Friday, Japan provides CPI data (at 0:30BST). Our Japanese team expects data to show that core inflation in July was 3.3% (1.3% after the 2.0% downward revision from the consumption tax hike). Data will also be released for the eurozone, namely CPI and the unemployment rate at 10:00BST on Friday. Markets expect the unemployment rate in July to have remained steady at 11.5% and CPI to have fallen to 0.3% y-o-y in August. Canadian GDP is expected to show a 3.6% q-o-q increase based on estimates by our Canadian economists, although the market expects only a 2.6% increase q-o-q annualized. Both would mark an increase from 1.2% in the previous period.
Key Quotes
Next week kicks off with German IFO data on Monday at 9:00BST. Nomura estimates are slightly below the market consensus. US house price data are released on Tuesday at 14:00BST. Otherwise the first few days of next week are relatively quiet on the data front.
From Europe on Thursday, Spanish GDP data for Q2 will be released. However, this is only a final number after the preliminary data released in late July, and the release is not likely to be overly surprising. Later on Thursday there are unemployment data from Germany (8:55BST) and confidence indicators from the eurozone at 10:00BST. Germany also releases preliminary data on the August CPI on Thursday at 13:00BST. Nomura economists are above consensus on a month-on-month harmonized basis by one tenth of a percentage point at 0.1%.
From the US on Thursday, we get the second estimates for Q2 GDP and core PCE. Both the market and our US economics team expect the growth rate (q-o-q annualized) to be revised down by 0.1% to 3.9%. Monthly PCE data will also be released for July, but on the following day (Friday at 13:30BST).
On Friday, Japan provides CPI data (at 0:30BST). Our Japanese team expects data to show that core inflation in July was 3.3% (1.3% after the 2.0% downward revision from the consumption tax hike). Data will also be released for the eurozone, namely CPI and the unemployment rate at 10:00BST on Friday. Markets expect the unemployment rate in July to have remained steady at 11.5% and CPI to have fallen to 0.3% y-o-y in August. Canadian GDP is expected to show a 3.6% q-o-q increase based on estimates by our Canadian economists, although the market expects only a 2.6% increase q-o-q annualized. Both would mark an increase from 1.2% in the previous period.