USD/INR Price Analysis: Bulls making fresh highs as US dollar firms
- USD/INR bulls are taking the lead on a stronger US dollar.
- US CPI has driven Fed sentiment into the markets and expectaitons of a hawkish 2022.
USD/INR is attemtion to break higher with the US dollar the strongest of the major currencies followind the US Consumer price Index data on Thursday that caused hightened concerns in financial markets.
Stongly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's James Bullard ave also underpinned the sentiment for a 50bps rate hike in March. The aggressive comments from Bullard have sent US Treasury yields higher after he said the data had made him "dramatically" more hawkish.
Bullard now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes by July 1. He even said that the Fed could raise rates at inter-meetings. Consequently, contracts traded at CME Group priced in an 88% chance of a 50 basis point hike in March and a nearly 95% chance of at least 100 basis points by June.
Nevertheless, from a technciak point of view, there is a W-formaiton on the USD/INR daily chart as follows:
USD/INR daily chart
This is a reversion patter that coud lead to a restest of the neckline prior to any significant upide breakout. Traders could anticipate a breakdown in price and hourly support as follows:
USD/INR H1 chart
Nevertheless, while sentiment is for a more hawkish outcome from the Fed in 2022, the US dollar would be expected to reain underpinned. This would be expected to lead to a higher USD/INR on a longer term basis:
