Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Downbeat figures to trigger profit-taking

The US economy is expected to have added 1.4 million jobs in August. USD is heading into the release giving up some ground, but overall strong. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, analyzes dollar’s possible reaction to different scenarios.

See – NFP Preview: Eight major banks expectations for August jobs report

Key quotes

“The US is expected to have recovered another 1.4 million jobs in August, after adding 1.76 million in July. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 9.8% from the latest 10.25, while the participation rate is seen steady at 61.4%. Average Hourly Earnings, however, are expected to remain flat in the month and are foreseen at 4.5% when compared to a year earlier.”

“Upbeat numbers could boost the greenback, given its own momentum, despite it could also boost equities. A disappointing outcome, on the other hand, will be quite shocking at this point and spur some profit-taking ahead of the weekend.”

“As usual, GBP/USD could be the less interest pair to trade with this event, while USD/CAD would be the riskiest, as Canada will also publish monthly employment data.”

“The EUR and the JPY are the most vulnerable in the case of a strengthening dollar, while the AUD/USD pair will tend to follow equities.”