EUR/USD 6-month forecast lowered to 1.10 - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank point out that the European Central Bank is the latest central bank to adopt a more dovish stance. They see Euro’s weakness could play an important role in supporting the ECB’s policy stance. They lowered their 6-month EUR/USD forecast to 1.10. 

Key Quotes: 

“The ECB cannot be accused of beating about the bush. The Governing Council this week preempted the continuation of market speculation regarding whether and when the ECB will offer further support for banks by launching TLTRO III and removing its guidance that rates could be heading higher later this year. The dovish signals from the central bank weighed on the EUR, taking EUR/USD briefly below the key 1.12 level for the first time since June 2017.”

“Over the medium-term the accommodative position of the ECB should help breath life back in the Eurozone economy. That said, in the absence of an improvement of economic data we expect that the EUR will remain out of favour and expect EUR/USD to drift downwards in the months ahead. We maintain our forecast of EUR/USD1.12 on a 3 month view.”

“Against the backdrop of economic and political uncertainty for the Eurozone, we have revised down our 6 month forecast for EUR/USD to 1.10. We have pushed down our 12 mth view to 1.12 from 1.15. In this time frame we see scope for a modest underperformance in the USD in anticipation that fears of a US recession could then be increasing.”