Japan: Q3 annualised growth estimated at -1.2% q-q – Nomura

Research Team at Nomura expect that the Japan’s 2018 Q3 (Jul-Sep) real GDP figures scheduled for release on 14 November (Wednesday) will show q-q annualized growth of -1.2% (-0.3% q-q), marking a return to negative growth after a quarter of positive growth.

Key Quotes

“We expect the Jul-Sep numbers to show especially large negative growth contributions from consumer spending and exports.”

“We expect real consumer spending in Jul-Sep 2018 to have fallen by 0.4% q-q, slumping after a strong showing in the Apr-Jun quarter.”

“We expect the data for Jul-Sep to show a decline in real exports, reflecting the impact of a global economic slowdown.”

“Although we expect real GDP to have swung to negative growth again in Jul-Sep after a quarter of positive growth, our main forecast scenario pictures a return to positive growth in Oct-Dec.”

“We expect global economic growth to gradually taper off (although without a sudden slowdown), and we expect Japan's economy to chart a similar course, given its sensitivity to trends in external demand.”