Bank of England: It all comes down to the deal - ING

"The Bank of England raised interest rates in August, but we suspect this will be the last such rise for quite some time. Uncertainty surrounding Brexit is ramping up, and talk of the possibility of a 'no deal' scenario increases," argue ING analysts.

Key quotes

"Admittedly, we think the probability of a 'no deal' is still relatively low. However, it all comes down to a crunch vote in the UK Parliament in early 2019 which means uncertainty is only likely to rise as we head into the winter and could begin to test business and consumer sentiment even further - particularly if a few dramatic headlines related to the government's 'no deal' preparations begin to cause concern."

"This makes it very unlikely that the Bank will hike again before March 2019, and we think there are three scenarios for what happens after that. Firstly, if the parliamentary process in early 2019 is relatively smooth - in other words, MPs approve the deal with relatively little fuss - then there is a possibility of a rate hike in May next year."

"However, if the process is more fractious and lawmakers demand concessions before approving the withdrawal agreement, this raises the possibility that we won't know for sure if 'no deal' will be averted until the last minute. Even if a solution is eventually found, confidence is likely to take much more of a hit in the first quarter and growth momentum would likely slow. In this case, we suspect the Bank would keep rates on hold for longer to monitor how the economy recovers."

"In the case of 'no deal', the economic impact would be significant and any tightening plans would be taken off the table, and in fact, we would likely see the probability of a rate cut increase."