NZ: Strong trade balance numbers - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s monthly trade balance came in better than expected at $217m (-$100m exp) courtesy of lower vehicle and crude oil imports. 

Key Quotes

“An unadjusted trade surplus of $217m was seen in February, which was better than expected. The overall picture of strong export performance, offset by solid domestic economic activity, remains – with the annual deficit continuing to fluctuate around the $3 billion mark.”

“In seasonally adjusted terms export value rose 2.5% m/m. The better performance was led by sheepmeat, seafood, wine and forestry.”

“The main surprise in the February numbers was the weakness in import values, which dropped 5% m/m. Weakness centred on vehicle and crude/petroleum imports. Recent biosecurity disruptions, with container ships being turned away to fumigate for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, seem to be the main cause of lower vehicle imports. This represents more of a timing issue, rather than drop in demand so some catch-up can be expected. Crude/petroleum imports also remain strangely subdued, despite NZD prices rise with global oil prices.”