GBP/USD contracts into near-term midrange ahead of key UK and US data
- GBP/USD gets rejected from 1.3300 once again as markets middle on Wednesday.
- Market momentum broadly took a break during the midweek, restraining volatility.
- UK GDP growth figures and US PPI inflation are next up on the docket for Thursday.
GBP/USD pared recent gains on Wednesday, trimming back to the low side of the 1.3300 handle and falling back into a choppy near-term consolidation phase as investors buckle down for Thursday’s double feature of key data prints from both the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US).
First up on Thursday will be UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter. UK Q1 GDP is expected to give a mixed print, with QoQ growth forecast to tick up, but annualized GDP to fall back slightly as a slump in domestic economic activity falls to the tail end of the curve. Q1 GDP is expected to rise to 0.6% QoQ from 0.1%, while Q1 GDP is forecast to ease to 1.2% YoY from 2024 Q4’s 1.5%.
The American market session will follow up with US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation. Core PPI inflation is expected to tick down to 3.1% YoY from 3.3%. Easing inflation pressures is a good thing, but markets are growing increasingly apprehensive of tariff impacts, which are set to begin leaking into headline economic data as soon as May.
GBP/USD price forecast
Thursday saw Cable bids continue to chalk in a new congestion phase, with GBP/USD poised for an extended battle near the 1.3300 handle. Price action has been in a choppy phase since slipping back from recent highs near 1.3450, but bearish momentum has been struggling to drag bids back down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3100.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.