EUR/GBP appreciates to near 0.8530 due to strong Eurozone inflation, weak Pound outlook
- EUR/GBP advances as the Euro strengthens, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data.
- The impact on the ECB’s policy outlook is likely to be limited despite the upside surprise.
- The Bank of England is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
EUR/GBP continues to climb for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 0.8530 during early European hours on Monday. The currency cross is gaining as the Euro (EUR) strengthens on the back of robust Eurozone inflation data, released on Friday.
According to Eurostat, the core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)—which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco—rose by 2.7% year-on-year in April, surpassing both the 2.5% market forecast and March’s 2.4% reading. The headline HICP also beat expectations, increasing by 2.2% annually versus the anticipated 2.1%. On a monthly basis, core and headline HICP rose by 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.
Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data, the impact on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook is expected to remain muted. Policymakers are increasingly focused on the broader economic slowdown, particularly amid the added pressure of new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. Most ECB officials remain confident inflation will ease back to the 2% target this year, with markets continuing to price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the June meeting.
At the same time, the British Pound (GBP) is facing pressure due to growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% during its policy meeting on Thursday. The dovish sentiment stems from several factors: lingering global uncertainty tied to US tariffs, a weakening UK labor market, partly due to rising employer social security contributions, and softer-than-expected inflation figures for March.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.